Warm ocean waters are fueling the development of El Niño – El Niño typically increases global temperatures and drives more extreme weather and rainfall patterns – Advanced forecasts help in preparations to protect lives and livelihoods – Time for informed decision-making, planning and preparedness is now.
| Geneva, Switzerland, 2 June 2026 (WMO) – Fueled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Niño conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather over the coming months, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). A new WMO El Niño/La Niña Update indicates an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026. Probabilities for this to continue until at least November are near or above 90%. Although some uncertainty remains about El Niño peak strength and timing, most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate – and possibly strong. WMO El Niño/Updates are the world’s most authoritative source of information for governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management. They are based on a consensus of models from WMO Global Producing Centres, experts from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and climate prediction centres around the world and are produced through a collaborative effort between the WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). “The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed. The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres, in his video statement. In late April to mid-May, the sea-surface temperature in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific – the area used as a monitoring reference – was approaching El Niño thresholds, according to observations from different platforms used by WMO. These increasing surface anomalies are being fed by unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific, with temperatures exceeding 6 °C above average and providing a substantial reservoir of heat that is contributing to the observed surface warming. Meanwhile, the Southern Oscillation Index – which is the atmospheric component of El Niño – is also consistent with developing El Niño conditions. “We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors. Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities,” said Celeste Saulo. WMO has issued a complementary Global Seasonal Climate Update – which takes into account other climate drivers, enabling more refined regional forecasts. Monitoring informs action – El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); one of the most powerful naturally occurring climate patterns on Earth. El Niño is characterized by a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months. It generally begins developing between March and June and reaches its peak intensity between November and February, with impacts on global temperatures typically being most pronounced in the second year after development. The effects of each El Niño/La Niña event vary depending on the intensity, duration, time of year when it develops, and also how it interacts with other climate variability modes (such as the Indian Ocean Dipole). Not all regions of the world are affected, and even within a region, impacts can be different. Even when ENSO is neutral, extreme weather can still occur. The strength of an ENSO event is highly significant – whether it is classed as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. Even a moderate El Niño makes some weather and climate extremes more likely. WMO does not use the term “super El Niño” because it is not part of standardized operational classifications. There is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events. But it can amplify associated impacts because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increase the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall. Typical impacts – Each El Niño event is unique in terms of its evolution, spatial pattern and impacts. However, it is typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia, and drier conditions over Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia. |
| During the Boreal summer, El Niño’s warm water can fuel hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean, while it hinders hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin. Thus, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and WMO Regional Climate Centres and Regional Climate Outlook Forums issue regularly updated information to inform national and regional decision-making. WMO is also providing regular briefings to humanitarian agencies via the WMO Coordination Mechanism. For example, the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) predicts a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall across much of the northern Greater Horn of Africa during the critical June–September rainy season. Similarly, South Asia is expected to receive below average monsoon rainfall, according to the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum. The Central America region expects drier and warmer conditions according to the Central America Climate Outlook Forum. Global Seasonal Climate Update – WMO also issued a complementary Global Seasonal Climate Update which takes into account ENSO and other key climate drivers, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode and the Indian Ocean Dipole – which correlates closely with El Niño in the Pacific and which may develop into a positive phase, peaking concurrently with the intensifying El Niño. For the June-July-August season, forecasts project a nearly universal dominance of above-normal temperatures in nearly all parts of the globe. These increase risks of heat stress and compounding hazards in some regions and accelerate the development of drought conditions where rainfall is reduced. Rainfall probabilities are typical of El Niño patterns and this is likely to contribute to a greater probability of extremes (e.g. increased rainfall and flooding, as well as drier conditions and droughts. |
| Notes for Editors The WMO El Niño/La Niña Update is prepared through a collaborative effort between the WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA, and is based on contributions from experts worldwide, inter alia, of the following institutions: Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Centro Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno El Niño (CIIFEN), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) and Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Services of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States of America (USA), European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Météo-France, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), International Monsoons Project Office (IMPO), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Met Office of the United Kingdom, Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), WMO Global Producing Centres of Seasonal Prediction (GPCs-SP) including the Lead Centre for Seasonal Prediction Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-SPMME). United Nations correspondent journalists – United Nations correspondent journalists – United Nations journalism articles – United Nations journalism articles – United Nations News – UNCA Awards |