New York, April 24 – India will get the title as the world’s most populous nation when its population grows to 1.429 billion by mid-2023 with 40 per cent of the people under 25 years old, the U.N. and the Pew Research Center said.

The U.N. estimated that India’s population will surpass China’s population of 1,426 billion, which peaked in 2022, by the end of April and will continue to grow for several more decades. By contrast China’s population could drop below 1 billion before the end of this century as the country now has the world’s lowest fertility rates of 1.2 births per woman while India’s current fertility rate is 2.0 births per woman.

China conducted a census in November 2020 while India’s planned census in 2021 was postponed until 2024 because of the Covid pandemic.

The world population now stands at 8 billion people.

The U.N. said the number of older persons is growing rapidly in both China and India. But it said the number of persons aged 65 or over in China is expected to increase and nearly double those of the same age in India.

“The number of adults of working age in India is projected to continue increasing both in number and as a proportion of the total population through mid-century, providing opportunities for faster economic growth over the next few decades,” the U.N. said. But it said projections indicated that the percentage of the population at ages 25-64 in China will peak in the coming years, “closing the window of opportunity created by the changing age distribution.”

While studying and projecting population growth, the U.N. warned of uncertainties associated with estimating and projecting populations. It said the specific date on which India is expected to surpass China in population size is approximate and subject to revision. The U.N. has called for national censuses to be taken at least once every 10 years.

The Pew Research Center said in its most recent report that India’s population has grown by more than 1 billion people since 1950 and the exact size of the population is not yet known but it is estimated at over 1.4 billion.

It said India has not conducted a census since 2011.

Compared with India’s population, Europe has a total population of 743 million, the Americas have a total of 1.04 billion.

Pew Research said 40 per cent of Indian people are under 25 and globally one in five people under that age group is an Indian because there are so many Indians in this age group. It said india’s median age is 28. By comparison, the median age is 38 in the United States and 39 in China.

It said, according to the U.N., China and the United States, the world’s second and third countries with largest populations, have rapidly aging populations – unlike India. It said India’s adults ages 65 and older comprise only 7 per cent of the population this year compared with 14 per cent in China and 18 per cent in the U.S. (By J. Tuyet Nguyen)

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