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WMO: Prepare for hotter than normal temperatures across nearly all parts of the globe

Warm ocean waters are fueling the development of El Niño – El Niño typically increases global temperatures and drives more extreme weather and rainfall patterns – Advanced forecasts help in preparations to protect lives and livelihoods – Time for informed decision-making, planning and preparedness is now.

Geneva, Switzerland, 2 June 2026 (WMO) – Fueled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Niño conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather over the coming months, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 
 
A new WMO El Niño/La Niña Update indicates an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026. Probabilities for this to continue until at least November are near or above 90%. Although some uncertainty remains about El Niño peak strength and timing, most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate – and possibly strong.
 
WMO El Niño/Updates are the world’s most authoritative source of information for governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management. They are based on a consensus of models from WMO Global Producing Centres, experts from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and climate prediction centres around the world and are produced through a collaborative effort between the WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). 
 
“The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty.  The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.  Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.  The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres, in his video statement.
 
In late April to mid-May, the sea-surface temperature in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific – the area used as a monitoring reference – was approaching El Niño thresholds, according to observations from different platforms used by WMO. 
 
These increasing surface anomalies are being fed by unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific, with temperatures exceeding 6 °C above average and providing a substantial reservoir of heat that is contributing to the observed surface warming. 
 
Meanwhile, the Southern Oscillation Index – which is the atmospheric component of El Niño – is also consistent with developing El Niño conditions.
 
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
 
“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors. Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities,” said Celeste Saulo.
 
WMO has issued a complementary Global Seasonal Climate Update – which takes into account other climate drivers, enabling more refined regional forecasts.
 
Monitoring informs action – El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); one of the most powerful naturally occurring climate patterns on Earth.
 
El Niño is characterized by a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months.
 
It generally begins developing between March and June and reaches its peak intensity between November and February, with impacts on global temperatures typically being most pronounced in the second year after development. 
 
The effects of each El Niño/La Niña event vary depending on the intensity, duration, time of year when it develops, and also how it interacts with other climate variability modes (such as the Indian Ocean Dipole). Not all regions of the world are affected, and even within a region, impacts can be different. Even when ENSO is neutral, extreme weather can still occur. 
 
The strength of an ENSO event is highly significant – whether it is classed as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. Even a moderate El Niño makes some weather and climate extremes more likely.
 
WMO does not use the term “super El Niño” because it is not part of standardized operational classifications.
 
There is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events. But it can amplify associated impacts because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increase the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
 
Typical impacts – Each El Niño event is unique in terms of its evolution, spatial pattern and impacts. 
 
However, it is typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia, and drier conditions over Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.
During the Boreal summer, El Niño’s warm water can fuel hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean, while it hinders hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin. Thus, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year.
 
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and WMO Regional Climate Centres and Regional Climate Outlook Forums issue regularly updated information to inform national and regional decision-making. WMO is also providing regular briefings to humanitarian agencies via the WMO Coordination Mechanism.
 
For example, the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) predicts a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall across much of the northern Greater Horn of Africa during the critical June–September rainy season. 
 
Similarly, South Asia is expected to receive below average monsoon rainfall, according to the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum.  
 
The Central America region expects drier and warmer conditions according to the Central America Climate Outlook Forum.
 
Global Seasonal Climate Update – WMO also issued a complementary Global Seasonal Climate Update which takes into account ENSO and other key climate drivers, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode and the Indian Ocean Dipole – which correlates closely with El Niño in the Pacific and which may develop into a positive phase, peaking concurrently with the intensifying El Niño.
 
For the June-July-August season, forecasts project a nearly universal dominance of above-normal temperatures in nearly all parts of the globe. These increase risks of heat stress and compounding hazards in some regions and accelerate the development of drought conditions where rainfall is reduced.
 
Rainfall probabilities are typical of El Niño patterns and this is likely to contribute to a greater probability of extremes (e.g. increased rainfall and flooding, as well as drier conditions and droughts.
Notes for Editors
 
The WMO El Niño/La Niña Update is prepared through a collaborative effort between the WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA, and is based on contributions from experts worldwide, inter alia, of the following institutions: Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Centro Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno El Niño (CIIFEN), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) and Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Services of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States of America (USA), European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Météo-France, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), International Monsoons Project Office (IMPO), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Met Office of the United Kingdom, Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), WMO Global Producing Centres of Seasonal Prediction (GPCs-SP) including the Lead Centre for Seasonal Prediction Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-SPMME).

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Iran: War has devastated life for millions of refugees and displaced

Note: The press release below from the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) details the terrible toll on Iranian civilians and Afghan refugees in Iran, resulting from the recent conflict. US and Israeli airstrikes have damaged civilian infrastructure, forced millions to flee their homes, and cost thousands of lives. NRC Secretary General Jan Egeland is currently visiting Iran. Media contact:  Ed Prior. Media Adviser to the Secretary General
Mobile: +47 902 94379 | ed.prior@nrc.no  

Oslo, 1 June 2026 – Millions of Iranian civilians and Afghan refugees living in Iran have been severely affected by the conflict, which has forced millions to flee their homes across the country.  Essential civilian infrastructure has been damaged, exacerbating deep humanitarian needs, warned Jan Egeland, Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) during a visit to the country.

“Families here in Iran, both vulnerable Iranians and Afghan refugees, are paying a terrible price for this war,” said Egeland. “Widespread US and Israeli airstrikes forced millions to leave their homes in search of safety. Children are traumatised and have had their education disrupted, whilst parents struggle to make ends meet due to inflation and rising prices. Everyone I have spoken to feels fearful that the war will again escalate.”    

Since the war began on the 28th of February, almost 3,500 people have been killed in the country, with more than 32,000 people injured nationwide. Across Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and the Gulf, thousands have been killed in airstrikes, with millions of lives shattered as a result of widespread attacks.   

The intense air campaign on Iran, in densely populated areas, triggered massive displacement with millions fleeing Tehran to seek safety. 

People who temporarily relocated are now returning, but those whose homes and livelihoods were destroyed remain displaced. In total, almost 150,000 homes, shops, schools, and other civilian buildings have been damaged, and 17 million pupils remain unable to attend school in person.  

NRC calls upon all parties to commit to a permanent end of hostilities. A sustained ceasefire and lasting peace agreement would enable the civilian populations in all conflict affected countries to gradually resume their lives and facilitate safe humanitarian access for humanitarian relief and rehabilitation. 

“Civilian life in Iran has been turned upside down as a result of the war,” said Egeland. “NRC and our partners have been doing all we can to support Afghan refugees and displaced Iranians. But we only have a third of the funding we need to sustain our emergency relief efforts.” 

NRC has been working in Iran since 2012, providing support to hundreds of thousands across ten provinces, including cash assistance, education, and water and sanitation.  

“Without further funding, we will have to reduce our emergency relief efforts instead of scaling up for those in desperate need. We only have funding from Norway, Sweden, and the European Union, in spite of Iran being the world’s largest refugee-hosting country and the dramatic impact of the war on civilians,” said Egeland. 

“Without proper resources for this crisis response, the lives of both Iranian civilians and Afghan refugees will face severe consequences from this war, for years to come.”  

Most of the four million Afghan refugees have been living in the country for decades, in urban and semi-urban industrial areas where their employment opportunities have been curtailed by the war and the sanctions against the Iranian economy. 

“The people I’ve met here in Iran speak of terrible loss: homes, family members, life savings, but also of the traumatising impact the war has had on children. Now, economic pressures are robbing them of their hope for the future. It is vital that we support both the vulnerable Iranian and Afghan refugee population, to prevent a further deepening of this humanitarian crisis,” said Egeland. 

Notes to editors  

  • Photos from Iran can be downloaded for free use here
  • Around 3.2 million people were temporarily displaced at the beginning of the war (UNHCR)
  • The Iranian Ministry of Health report 3,375 civilian deaths and 32,314 injuries nationwide. (OCHA). 
  • Nearly 149,000 civilian units have reportedly damaged, directly affecting an estimated 400,000 people. (OCHA). 
  • 1,200 educational facilities reported as affected and 20 schools destroyed, as well as 240 health facilities reported damaged (OCHA). 
  • More than 17 million students remain unable to attend school in person. (OCHA)
  • With over 4.4 million Afghans seeking safety and livelihoods in the country, Iran is currently hosting the world’s largest refugee population (UNHCR).  
  • About 2.4 million Afghans reside in Tehran (according to the Province Governor). Tehran metropolitan area hosts a significant Afghan population due to its industrial zones, employment opportunities, and proximity to the capital.  
  • The response for Afghan refugees in Iran has been chronically underfunded with just 18 per cent funded in 2025 through the Regional Refugee Response Plan (OCHA).  
  • The more than four million Afghans are among the most affected by the consequences of the war. More than 35,000 have returned to Afghanistan since the start of the conflict, and more than one million remain at risk of deportation. (NRC
  • The humanitarian response is 47% funded -only 37.6 of the 80 million US dollars required have been raised (OCHA)  
  • On the evening of the 7th of April, a ceasefire agreement was announced, but airstrikes have continued.  
  • NRC has been working in Iran since 2012. In 2025, NRC provided assistance to nearly 115,000 Afghans and host community members across 10 provinces.  
  • NRC is aiming to target 50,000 Iranians and Afghans affected by this crisis across nine provinces, while prioritising cash assistance, education services, protection and legal assistance and integrated water and sanitation, and shelter support to ensure vulnerable communities can meet their urgent needs. 

For more information or to arrange an interview, please contact   

  • NRC global media hotline: media@nrc.no, +47 905 62 329    

Ed Prior
Media Adviser to the Secretary General
Mobile: +47 902 94379 | ed.prior@nrc.no  
Norwegian Refugee Council

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World leaders support strengthening the UN to end wars, admit some countries have disregarded international law

New York, 26 May 2026 – Government officials attending a debate in the United Nations Security Council, which is responsible for the world’s peace and security, tried to salvage the organization as wars and division have already diminished the importance of the organization’s charter and mission.

The council held a high-level meeting attended by ministers of foreign affairs to defend the UN Charter, reform the global governance and restore confidence on the UN Security council, which is deeply divided among the five permanent members – the US, UK, Russia, China and France. The council comprises also 10 countries elected to serve two year-terms.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told the meeting that the world is witnessing a dangerous erosion of respect for international law. He said the UN core principles – sovereign equality, territorial integrity, political independence, the prohibition of the threat or use of force – “are being challenged or ignored.”

“Violations go unanswered,” he said. “Impunity is spreading, geopolitical divisions are deepening, mistrust is growing, consensus is harder to achieve.”

He lambasted the 15-nation council, which he said “too often fails to act with unity and purpose. When the Security Council is divided, the consequences are felt far beyond this chamber “and as a result “conflicts are proliferating and intensifying. We now face the highest number of conflicts since the founding of the United Nations.”

He said conflicts are growing and expanding “in scale and complexity” in the Middle East, Ukraine, Sudan and beyond, and the world is witnessing growing numbers of external interference that provide weapons such as drones which target also civilians and civilian objects.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who led the council meeting as China holds the presidency in May, said, “The giant ship of human civilization is sailing into dangerous waters – and world peace and development is at a dangerous crossroads. Today’s challenges are testing the international community’s commitment to safeguarding peace, its resolve to stand up for justice and its courage to take bold reforms.”

“We must stand united and act together to defend, to revitalize and to strengthen the United Nations. We must reinvigorate the UN Charter for stronger leadership.” he said, adding that the Charter remains the biggest common denominator of the post-war international community.

“We must strengthen the authority of the Security Council for greater ability to act,” Wang said pointing out that the council is “the most authoritative and legitimate body in the multilateral security system.” Wang urged that council to improve its working methods including rules of procedure and ensure that its proposals are “objective, impartial and inclusive” and avoid “forcing through” contentious initiatives. 

Michael George DeSombre, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs of the United States, said the US helped found the UN in 1945 “to prevent global conflicts and promote international peace and security. We remain deeply invested in that mission today.” DeSombre said the Trump administration has since January 2025 taken “decisive and significant action to address these shortcomings,” in the UN and “has led efforts to get the UN back to its basic mission of maintaining international peace and security.”

“In practice, that includes streamlining the bureaucracy, eliminating duplication, and ensuring accountability for a more effective UN,” he said. “Under President Trump’s leadership, U.S. foreign policy is no longer beholden to a network of international institutions that are often driven by transnationalism that seeks to dissolve individual state sovereignty. Instead, we are focused on results. In the Security Council, we are putting these words into action.”

“The United States has played a central role in shaping the international order and multilateral institutions. What we are working towards is not a rejection of multilateralism, but putting clarity and results over inefficiency and hollow words. We will continue to work to advance the founding principles of the UN Charter,” he said. “We call on those whose actions undermine the UN Charter—including, at times, permanent members of this Council—to change course immediately.

Ambassador Jérôme Bonnafont of France said the erosion of international law and growing number of conflicts are the result of recklessness, UN News reported. Bonnafont said the illegal use of force and breach of international humanitarian law is reflected in the war of aggression waged by the Russian Federation against Ukraine – done so with “a lack of knowledge about the purposes and principles of the United Nations and rulings of the International Court of Justice”.

He condemned Moscow’s indiscriminate actions against civilians in Kyiv and other areas, as well as its targeting of communities and foreign embassies. He also accused the Russian representative of engaging in “inappropriate and mendacious verbal attacks” against France and Germany.

Ambassador Vassily A. Nebenzia of the Russian Federation, said the UN Charter is “a unique document” that “despite mushrooming risks and challenges” has spared the world another global war,Nebenzia said, as reported by UN News. “Yet today, the world is bearing witness to “ubiquitous breaches”, with attempts to cast doubt on the Charter’s value and obligation to comply therewith.

He accused the West of proposing a rules-based order which they both designed and have portrayed as universal. He denounced the disregard and contempt shown for the Charter – “the cornerstone document” – which today has reached itspeak.”Western elites” have shed any qualms about using brute force for the advancement of their political and economic interests. He accused them of hunting for resources and influence in their former colonies, engaging in an open fight against inconvenient sovereign countries, imposing new spaces in Asia and NATO-centric unions which threaten to undermine collective security. “Our duty is to cherish the Charter,” he insisted. (By J. Tuyet Nguyen)

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States Reaffirm Importance of Nonproliferation Treaty, But U.S.-Iran Dispute Blocks Consensus Outcome

Note: A United Nations conference spent four weeks to review the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. But the conference ended without agreement as the United States and Iran continue to spar over Iran’s nuclear program. Following is a press release from the Arms Control Association in Washington, which says that There are No New Commitments to Actions to Address Growing Nuclear Dangers. Media Contacts: Daryl Kimball, Executive Director (202-463-8270 x107)

Washington/New York, 22 May 2026 – After weeks of tough negotiations and debate, representatives of some 190 governments to the pivotal 11th nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference failed to reach consensus on a modest outcome document that reaffirms consensus-based commitments made at the 1995, 2000, and 2010 Review Conferences apparently due to references to Iran’s nuclear program that the United States insisted on including in the document.

Due to intransigence from the five nuclear-armed states, representatives also failed to adopt meaningful new steps in the draft document to advance the treaty’s core goals, particularly on nuclear disarmament, according to experts with the Arms Control Association who attended the month-long conference at UN headquarters in New York.

The NPT Review Conference is held every five years. The last two NPT Review Conferences (2015 and 2022) also failed to produce a consensus outcome document.

The 2026 NPT Review Conference was led by Vietnam’s Ambassador to the UN, Do Hung Viet. Before the 2026 Conference opened, President Du Hong Viet told Arms Control Today that another failure would further weaken the NPT. “We may lose the credibility of the NPT itself,” Viet warned.

“Tragically,  NPT states missed an important opportunity to formally reaffirm their support for the treaty and its core principles, goals, and objectives at a time of increasing nuclear dangers,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, who has attended and participated as a nongovernmental expert in seven NPT Review Conferences going back to 1995.

“In reality, the ongoing dispute over Iran’s sensitive nuclear activities, which has been complicated by President Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, cannot be resolved at the NPT Review Conference and must be addressed through serious and more sustained diplomacy outside the halls of the UN,” he continued.

“The draft outcome document, which addresses the status of implementation and compliance with the treaty and next steps relating to each of the NPT’s three main components — nuclear disarmament, nonproliferation, and peaceful uses of nuclear energy under effective safeguards against military diversion — would have formally succeeded in reaffirming states parties core commitments and obligations,” Kimball noted.

“Even if the consensus could have been achieved,” Kimball added, “states-parties missed a chance to use the conference to address the dizzying array of nuclear dangers, including the deficit in nuclear disarmament diplomacy.”

For the first time since 1972, there are no agreed limits on the size of the Russian and U.S. nuclear arsenals, the world’s largest. The U.S. government has called for multilateral “strategic stability” talks, but there are no negotiations between Washington and Moscow or with other nuclear armed states to limit or reduce their arsenals. Without new bilateral or multilateral constraints, there is a serious risk of a dangerous, global nuclear buildup in the years ahead.

“Due to the combined efforts of the NPT’s nuclear five who used aggressive diplomatic intimidation tactics against nonnuclear weapon states, the document failed to call for concrete action steps that are urgently needed to avert a new nuclear arms race and reassure nonnuclear weapon states they will not be attacked by nuclear-armed states,” Kimball charged.

For example, paragraph four of the outcome document fails to call upon the five nuclear-armed states to “negotiate” on “disarmament” with “urgency.” Article VI of the NPT already states they must “pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.”

Instead, the draft outcome document pursues “constructive dialogue on the basis of mutual respect and acknowledgement of each other’s security interests and concerns, to ease international tension, promote international peace and stability, enhance confidence and reduce strategic risks, and note that such engagement could facilitate future arms control discussions, and help progress towards nuclear disarmament ….”

 “The failure of nuclear weapon states-parties to agree on language that already exists within the Treaty and the failure to commit to new steps with any urgency, reveals just how wide the disarmament deficit has grown,” emphasized Libby Flatoff, Program and Policy Associate of the Arms Control Association, who also attended the Review Conference.

“One bright spot,” Kimball said, “is that states parties insisted, despite opposition from the U.S. delegation, on including meaningful language in paragraph eight of the draft outcome document in support of the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), against the resumption of nuclear testing by any state and the international monitoring and verification system of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization.”

“The draft final outcome document that was worked out over nearly a month of debate and negotiation tells us as much about what some states, particularly the nuclear weapon states, cannot agree upon as much as it tells us what they still do agree upon,” said Kimball.

When reflecting on how the conference was run, Kimball said: “Amb. Viet smartly pursued agreement on a draft outcome document that was relatively short. It focused on principles rather than invoking the names of countries, and it also side-stepped a number of key issues, including the North Korean nuclear challenge, attacks on Ukrainian and Iranian nuclear facilities, and the growing discomfort with the extended nuclear deterrence practices of U.S. allies, in order to try to achieve consensus on core issues. Nevertheless, that was still not enough to achieve agreement among the treaty’s many states and their divergent views.”

“U.S. leadership, always critical to a successful and meaningful NPT process, was sorely lacking,” he said.

“The foundations of the NPT, the cornerstone of global efforts to reduce and eliminate the world’s greatest danger, are cracking due to inattention, intransigence, and ineptitude. Much more enlightened, engaged, and pragmatic leadership from Washington and the capitals of the other nuclear-armed states will be needed to strengthen the system to guard against the growing risks of nuclear arms racing, nuclear testing, and nuclear proliferation,” Kimball said.

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The Arms Control Association is an independent, membership-based organization dedicated to providing authoritative information and practical policy solutions to address the threats posed by the world’s most dangerous weapons. 

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Developing economies bear the brunt of Middle East conflict as growth slows and inflation rises, UN warns

Note: Higher energy costs, weaker trade, and tighter financial conditions weigh on an already subdued global outlook. Following is a press release from the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

New York, 19 May 2026 — The crisis in the Middle East has delivered yet another shock to the global economy, slowing growth, reigniting inflationary pressures and heightening uncertainty, according to the World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2026 report.

Global GDP growth is now forecast at 2.5 per cent in 2026—0.2 percentage points below the January projection and well below pre-pandemic norms. A modest recovery is projected at 2.8 per cent in 2027. Solid labour markets, resilient consumer demand, and AI-driven trade and investment in select economies are expected to provide some support, but the downgrade underscores a further weakening of an already subdued global outlook.

The shock is primarily felt in the energy sector—through constrained supply, surging prices, and rising freight and insurance costs—with effects cascading through supply chains and increasing production costs globally. While the surge in prices delivers substantial windfall gains for energy companies, it has intensified cost pressures for households and businesses worldwide. The overall impact will depend on the duration of disruptions in energy markets, leaving the outlook highly uncertain and risks tilted to the downside.

The conflict has halted the global disinflation trend underway since 2023. In developed economies, inflation is forecast to rise from 2.6 per cent in 2025 to 2.9 per cent in 2026, edging further above central bank targets in most cases. In developing economies, the uptick is sharper: inflation is projected to accelerate from 4.2 per cent to 5.2 per cent, as higher energy, transport and import costs erode real incomes and broaden price pressures across a wide range of goods.

A particular concern is food prices. Fertilizer supplies have been disrupted, pushing up costs, which could reduce crop yields, exerting an upward pressure on food prices.

For central banks, the increasingly uncertain inflation environment poses a dilemma: raising interest rates to contain inflation risks further weakening growth, while standing pat risks allowing price pressures to become entrenched.

Global financial markets have so far remained resilient, absorbing the initial shock in broadly orderly fashion. However, higher energy prices have lifted inflation expectations, driving short-term bond yields higher. For developing countries, this has tightened external financing conditions and weakened fiscal positions, particularly where policy space is already limited.

“The Middle East crisis has intensified strains across developing economies,” said Li Junhua, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs. “Rising borrowing costs and renewed capital-flow pressures risk deepening debt vulnerabilities and constraining the resources available for sustainable development at a critical moment.”

Broad-based slowdown with uneven regional impacts – The impact of the crisis is highly uneven, with the most severe damage concentrated in WesternAsia. Growth in the region is projected to plunge from 3.6 per cent in 2025 to 1.4 per cent in 2026,driven not only by the energy shock but also by direct infrastructure damage and severe disruptions to oil production, trade, and tourism.

Elsewhere, outcomes vary widely, shaped above all by exposure and the capacity to respond. The United States is expected to remain comparatively resilient, with growth projected at 2.0 per cent in 2026, broadly stable from 2025, supported by solid household demand and continued investment in advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence. Europe, by contrast, is more exposed, with heavy reliance on imported energy straining households and businesses. Growth in the European Union is projected to slow from 1.5 per cent in 2025 to 1.1 per cent in 2026, while the United Kingdom faces a steeper moderation, from 1.4 per cent to 0.7 per cent.

In Asia, China’s diversified energy mix, sizable strategic reserves, and proactive policy support are providing an important buffer, with growth projected to moderate from 5.0 per cent in 2025 to 4.6 per cent in 2026. India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies, with output still expected to expand by 6.4 per cent, though the step-down from 7.5 per cent in 2025 underscores. the drag from higher energy import costs and tighter financial conditions.

In Africa, average growth is projected to ease only slightly—from 4.2 per cent in 2025 to 3.9 per cent in 2026—but this masks a deepening divide: oil and gas exporters are benefiting from elevated prices, while net energy importers face rising fiscal pressures from higher fuel and food costs.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, most economies are relatively less exposed, yet the region remains on a low-growth trajectory. Growth is forecast to slow from 2.5 per cent in 2025 to 2.3 per cent in 2026, constrained by weak investment and limited policy space.

Middle East crisis threatens development gains – The downgraded global outlook understates the true scale of the setback. The conflict in the MiddleEast threatens to reverse hard-won development gains and further slow progress toward theSustainable Development Goals. Resulting price shocks are eroding food security, real incomes, and productive investment—heightening the risk of lasting social and economic scarring.

Low-income families bear the heaviest burden, as higher food and energy prices take up a larger share of their spending and rising costs outpace wages, increasing poverty. Yet the governments most in need of shielding vulnerable populations are the least equipped to do so: aid flows are declining sharply, rising debt-service costs are crowding out spending on health, education, and social protection, and fiscal space to respond is severely constrained.

On the environmental front, persistently high energy prices risk a short-term return to carbon- intensive fuels, even as they strengthen the longer-term case for accelerating the shift away from fossil-fuel dependence. Addressing these intersecting threats requires sustained multilateral action, including keeping trade open, expanding concessional finance, and supporting structural transformation.

The Sevilla Commitment, the outcome of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development, provides a critical framework to scale up finance, address debt challenges and support the most vulnerable countries.

Renewed headwinds to productivity growth – Beyond these impacts of the Middle East conflict, the report draws attention to weakeningfoundations for medium-term growth. Global productivity growth has slowed since the globalfinancial crisis, and current disruptions risk reinforcing this trend by dampening investment andtrade flows. Across regions, widening gaps in capital accumulation, skills and innovation arecontributing to increasingly uneven performance. Geopolitical fragmentation and constrained fiscal

space risk further eroding productivity growth, entrenching existing divergences. Amid these headwinds, artificial intelligence offers significant potential but also poses considerable risks, with gains likely to be concentrated in a limited number of countries.

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The full report: https://desapublications.un.org/

Hashtag: #WorldEconomyReport

Media contacts:

Sharon Birch, UN Department of Global Communications, birchs@un.org

Helen Rosengren, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, rosengrenh@un.org

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Lebanon: Nearly 600 killed since fragile ceasefire agreed

Oslo, 13 May 2026 – Nearly 600 people have been killed in Lebanon in four weeks of fragile ceasefire, while more than one million people remain displaced, the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) said in a press release.  

NRC calls on all parties to fully respect the ceasefire and uphold international humanitarian law. Civilians, civilian infrastructure, health workers, and humanitarian personnel must be protected at all times. The right of displaced people to return safely and voluntarily must be upheld, and measures that risk turning displacement into a long-term reality must end. 

“What we are seeing on the ground in terms of daily attacks on villages has the hallmarks of a repeatedly violated ceasefire,” said Maureen Philippon, Country Director for NRC in Lebanon. “Civilians in Lebanon have known no peace since the agreement was announced. They continue to be killed, injured and displaced by daily Israeli attacks and evacuation orders. The ceasefire is now hanging in the balance.” 

Civilians in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa remain exposed to artillery shelling, airstrikes and demolitions. Entire families have been killed during the ceasefire period. Beirut has also been hit once. 

In that same period, Hezbollah has reportedly launched drones and missiles towards Israel. No casualties from these attacks have been reported. 

The ceasefire agreement, instead of reversing displacement, has deepened it. Many displaced families who attempted to go back were displaced again after finding their homes damaged and their villages with no water, electricity or services.  

Satellite imagery has documented extensive destruction of civilian infrastructure in southern Lebanon, and in some areas entire villages have been bulldozed and razed to rubble, further undermining any realistic prospect of return. 

One displaced woman from Bint Jbeil, southern Lebanon, said: “After the ceasefire, we went back to our village to check on our house. But after seeing the destruction and the lack of any real conditions to stay, we returned to displacement.”  

Israel has also established a so-called “Yellow Line” which includes 55 Lebanese villages, effectively creating a broader no-return zone. As Israeli forces continue to operate in and around these areas, many families remain unable to return to their homes, land, and livelihoods.  

The greater the damage and the longer the disruption to normal civilian life persists, the higher the level of international engagement and support that will be required. There is a direct link between the conduct of hostilities, especially when civilian infrastructure and homes are destroyed, and the cost of recovery. In a country already facing a deep economic crisis, this destruction will only deepen needs and further undermine stability. 

“Lebanon risks sliding from a fragile ceasefire into another cycle of violence, one that civilians simply cannot endure,” added Philippon. 

Notes to editors 

  • Photos from Lebanon can be downloaded for free use here
  • A ceasefire came into effect between Lebanon and Israel on 17 April 2026 for an initial period of 10 days and was later extended for three weeks.  
  • Since the ceasefire came into effect on 17 April, at least 588 people have been killed, including 23 children, and 1,224 people have been injured. Eight healthcare workers have also been killed. These figures are based on a comparison between the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health casualty figures recorded on 17 April, when the ceasefire came into effect, and those recorded on 12 May. The figures include people killed and injured during this period, bodies recovered or people previously reported missing and later confirmed dead, as well as people who had been injured earlier and died from their injuries during this period. 
  • More than 1 million people remain displaced in Lebanon, according to OCHA.
  • Satellite imagery and media reporting following the escalation that began on 2 March 2026 have documented extensive destruction in southern Lebanon (BBC). 
  • The so-called Yellow Line is described as a de facto boundary or buffer zone where Israeli forces continue to operate, restricting civilian return to affected areas in southern Lebanon and parts of the Bekaa. It reportedly affects over 55 towns. 

For more information or to arrange an interview, please contact  

  • NRC global media hotline: media@nrc.no, +47 905 62 329   

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UN fortifies presence and work in Africa, calling the continent a “driver of solutions”

New York/Nairobi, 12 May 2026 – The United Nations is expanding its headquarters in Africa, located at Kenya’s capital of Nairobi, whose presence has become more significant as the world organization is reforming to make its work and programs more effective in the face of funding shortage and personnel layoffs.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Kenyan President William Ruto and officials from the country as well as the UN itself held a groundbreaking ceremony on May 11 to expand the UN Office at Nairobi (UNON) with a new assembly hall and office buildings before several UN agencies will move there from New York.

Guterres said the ceremony was a “reaffirmation of the central role that Africa – and Kenya – play in the life and future of the United Nations. Nairobi is neither a satellite nor an outpost. It is a pillar – the only United Nations headquarters in Africa – and in the Global South.”

He praised Africa as “a driver of solutions, a source of innovation, and a voice of moral clarity in our shared pursuit of peace and security, sustainable development, and human rights.”

He praised the Kenyan government for generously donating the 140 acres of land that houses UNON, which he said has grown into “a dynamic hub of multilateral action. Nairobi is a place where global challenges meet regional solutions. Where innovation is born. And where the future of multilateralism is being shaped – every day. This is a powerful demonstration of what the United Nations can achieve when we are focused, efficient, and united in purpose.”

UNON comprises the UN Environment Program and UN Habitat and will soon welcome other UN agencies: UN Women, the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), the UN Population Agency and UN Funds for Children.

The UN General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York has approved a fund of US$340 million to expand the office in Nairobi, which UN News reported that it is the largest investment undertaken by the UN Secretariat in Africa in its 80-year history, strengthening Nairobi’s role as a global center for diplomacy and multilateral cooperation.

UN News said the construction of new buildings will increase conference capacity at UNON from 2,000 to 9,000 participants, including through the construction of a new assembly hall and expanded meeting facilities. Currently UNON has more than 70 offices used by thousands of staff.

The UN Chief said African countries have been making advances in technologies and the economy but they have been restrained by “global obstacles that Africa did not create – from unjust borrowing costs and crushing debt burdens to a deeply unequal international system that reflects last century’s power relations.”

“True solidarity with Africa means helping remove those obstacles,” he said. “That is also why the expansion of UNON – and the growing presence of UN entities here in Nairobi – matters so much.”

At the opening on May 12 of the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi co-hosted by the Kenyan president and France’s President Emmanuel Macron, Guterres credited Africa for leading the global debate about reforming global financial institutions that were “designed in 1945 for a world that no longer exists.” 

He also credited the continent’s leading role in other areas, including getting the Pact for the Future approved, building new tools for debt negotiations, and challenging credit ratings systems, UN News reported.

“This is not a continent waiting for solutions. This is a continent producing them,” he said.  “But let us be honest about what stands in Africa’s way.” 

The UN Chief pointed out an injustice against Africa: the continent is home to more than 1.5 billion people but it has no permanent seats on the 15-nation UN Security Council since the UN was established in 1945. The council has five permanent members: the United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France and China. (By J. Tuyet Nguyen)

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Conflict and violence become the leading driver of internal displacements

  • Conflict displacements have increased by 60% compared to 2024, driven by increasing international conflicts, persistent non-international armed conflicts and attacks on urban areas.
  • The total number of internally displaced persons has doubled in the last decade, from 38.9 million in 2016 to 82.2 million in 2025.
  • The Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 confirms that internal displacement represents a global structural crisis that governments need to address. Following is a press release from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) on the launch of the Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026, which shows that conflict and violence overtook disasters as the leading driver of internal displacements for the first time on record.

Geneva, Switzerland, 12 May 2026 – Conflict and violence drove a record 32.3 million internal displacements in 2025, surpassing disaster displacements for the first time on record, according to the Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 published today by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC).

“Never have we recorded such a staggering number of displacements related to conflict,” said IDMC director Tracy Lucas“As conflicts are intensifying, it is often the same people who are uprooted again and again. Yet the systems meant to protect them are being dismantled.”

The number of internal displacements includes each instance a person is forced to flee within the borders of their own country, often multiple times over the course of the year.

Meanwhile, the number of people living in internal displacement remained near record levels, at 82.2 million, the second-highest figure ever recorded.

Emerging, escalating and entrenched conflicts forced people to move repeatedly within their countries, driving a 60 per cent increase in conflict displacements compared with 2024. As instability deepened throughout the year, Iran, with 10 million internal displacements, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, with 9.7 million, together represented two-thirds of conflict displacements.

Disasters also continued to drive large-scale forced movement. Storms, floods and other hazards triggered 29.9 million internal displacements in 2025, a 35 per cent decrease compared with the exceptionally high levels of 2024, but still 13 per cent above the annual average of the past decade.

Countries previously less affected recorded large-scale displacements, while previous hotspots continued to be exposed, pointing to the ever-evolving patterns linked to a changing climate and need to invest in climate adaptation. Wildfires illustrated this shift by becoming an increasingly significant driver of displacement globally, accounting for more than 694,000 displacements in 2025, the hazard’s second-highest figure recorded in the past decade.

While the total number of internally displaced people fell slightly compared with 2024, it remained close to its historic peak. The decline was partly linked to reported returns, many of which took place under fragile conditions.

“Internal displacement of tens of millions is a sign of a global collapse in prevention of conflict and basic protection of civilians,” said Jan Egeland, secretary general of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC)“Countless families are returning to destroyed homes and disappearing services – or cannot return at all. From DR Congo and Sudan to Iran and Lebanon, we see millions more displaced on top of the previous record numbers driven out if their homes. We cannot continue like this.”

Internal displacement remained highly concentrated: nearly half of all conflict IDPs (31.4 million) lived in just five countries, with Sudan hosting the largest number for the third consecutive year (9.1 million), followed by Colombia (7.2 m), Syria (6 m), Yemen (4.8 m) and Afghanistan (4.4 m).

In 2025, data availability declined in several contexts due to fewer assessments and reduced coverage, limiting visibility on displacement dynamics and the situation of displaced people.

“Reliable displacement data is critical for understanding where needs and risks are greatest and for ensuring that policies and resources match the scale of the challenge,” Lucas said. “With rising needs and shrinking resources, investing in national data systems and coordination remains essential.”

Additional Key Findings

Global instability deepened in 2025, driving internal displacement to near-record levels worldwide. A total of 62.2 million internal displacements were reported during the year, including a record 32.3 million displacements caused by conflict and violence and 29.9 million caused by disasters.

Disaster displacements declined from the extreme highs of 2024, but risks remain severe. The 29.9 million disaster displacements recorded in 2025 were still 13 per cent above the average of the past decade, underscoring the fluctuating but persistent toll of climate and weather shocks.

Growing data gaps risk hiding the scale and impact of the crises. In 2025, IDMC observed reduced displacement data availability in 15 per cent of monitored countries, three times the share of 2024.

Media contact:

For interviews, please contact

Johanna Bohl, Communications Adviser
Email: johanna.bohl@idmc.ch
Phone: +41 76 244 92 34

Notes to editors

Read the full report  // download the data

About the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) is the world’s leading source of data and analysis on internal displacement. Since its establishment in 1998 as part of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), IDMC has provided high-quality data, analysis and expertise on internal displacement to inform policy and operational decisions that can improve the lives of internally displaced people (IDPs) worldwide and reduce the risk of future displacement.

About the Global Report on Internal Displacement

IDMC’s Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID) is the authoritative source for data and analysis on the state of internal displacement for the previous year. Each year, IDMC presents the validated estimates of internal displacements by conflict and disasters, and the total cumulative numbers of IDPs worldwide. The GRID also provides an overview of the year’s most significant internal displacement situations, highlighting potential measures to address the issue across the humanitarian, development, disaster risk reduction and climate change agendas.

How to read our data 

Internal displacements refer to the forced movements of people within the country they live in. The number of internal displacements counts each new forced movement of a person within the borders of the country of their habitual residence recorded during the year. The same person or people can be displaced several times over a given period of time. We count each time a person is forced to move as an internal displacement. We also refer to these as movements.

The number of internally displaced people (IDPs) is a snapshot of the total number of people living in internal displacement at a specific point in time in a specific location. For our Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID) and the Global Internal Displacement Database (GIDD), we make these snapshots as of the end of each year.

Learn more in our quick guide on how to read our data.

Media contact:

For interviews, please contact

Johanna Bohl, Communications Adviser
Email: johanna.bohl@idmc.ch
Phone: +41 76 244 92 34

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Lebanon: New analysis shows conflict escalation pushing nearly a quarter of population into acute food insecurity

Note: UN agencies and Government warn acute food insecurity is likely to deepen without sustained and timely humanitarian and livelihood support. Following is a joint news release from FAO, WFP and Ministry of Agriculture of Lebanon.

Beirut, Lebanon, 29 April 2026  – A sharp escalation in violence has reversed recent food security gains in Lebanon and pushed the country back into crisis. This is according to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) projected analysis released by the Ministry of Agriculture, in collaboration with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP).

 Link to latest report

The analysis reveals that 1.24 million people – nearly one in four of the population analysed – are expected to face food insecurity levels classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse, between April and August 2026. This marks a significant deterioration from the period of November 2025 through March 2026, when an estimated 874,000 people, roughly 17 percent of the population, were experiencing acute food insecurity. The deterioration is due to conflict, displacement and economic pressures.

“The fragility we warned about in the previous IPC analysis has unfortunately proven to be true,” said Allison Oman Lawi, WFP Representative and Country Director in Lebanon. “Hard won gains have been swiftly reversed. Families who were just managing to cope are now being pushed back into crisis as conflict, displacement and rising costs collide, making food increasingly unaffordable.”

‘This confirms continued and deepening fragility in rural and agrifood systems. Compounded shocks are undermining agricultural livelihoods and impacting food security, highlighting the urgent need for emergency agricultural assistance to support farmers and prevent further deterioration, said Nora Ourabah Haddad, FAO Representative in Lebanon.

“These results underscore the severity of the current situation in Lebanon, where conflict intersects with economic pressures putting national food security under critical risk and juncture. We reaffirm our commitment to adopting a sustainable, science-based approach that goes beyond merely monitoring crises, by responding to them through continuous policies and programmes that strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and protect farmers’ livelihoods.

“We also stress the need to move beyond passive neutrality in addressing these crises to a responsible neutrality toward a more proactive and strategic approach. In this context, we consider the media, alongside international partners, as a key pillar in conveying the truth and raising awareness, to support response efforts and promote sustainable recovery.

“Safeguarding food security in Lebanon is a shared national and international responsibility, and investment in agriculture remains essential to ensuring stability and strengthening communities’ resilience to recurring crises” said Lebanese Minister of Agriculture, Dr. Nizar Hani.

The findings confirm that Lebanon’s food security situation remains highly sensitive to shocks. Without predictable humanitarian assistance, improved access, and stabilisation of the security and economic environment, food insecurity is likely to deepen further in the months ahead.

The deterioration is being driven by a convergence of shocks linked to the ongoing escalation. Insecurity and displacement are disrupting livelihoods and income opportunities, while market access remains uneven in conflict affected areas as supply chains come under strain. At the same time, rising inflation and food prices continue to erode purchasing power, while reduced humanitarian assistance and funding shortfalls are limiting families’ ability to cope.

Agriculture — a critical source of food and income — has been significantly affected and has yet to recover from the 2024 conflict. Damage to farmland, widespread displacement of farming households, restricted access to agricultural areas, rising input costs, and persistent insecurity are constraining production, while localized market disruptions are further limiting farmers’ ability to operate. Risks are intensifying as the spring planting window closes. Without urgent support, missed planting seasons will lead to production losses, deepening food insecurity and increasing humanitarian needs in the months ahead. Livestock and poultry systems are also under strain due to restricted access and disrupted services.

Geographically, the sharpest deterioration is observed in conflict affected areas particularly in Bent Jbeil, Marjeyoun, Sour and Nabatiyeh districts, , where displacement and market disruptions are most pronounced, followed by Baalbeck El Hermel.

Furthermore, regional dynamics are compounding the crisis. Disruptions to trade routes, rising fuel and transport costs, and increasing food prices linked to the regional conflict are further squeezing markets and household budgets.

The crisis is affecting all population groups. Among Lebanese households, 725,000 people (19 percent) are projected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse levels of acute food insecurity. The situation remains particularly severe among displaced and vulnerable populations, with 362,000 Syrian refugees (36 percent) and 104,000 Palestinian refugees (45 percent) classified in Crisis or worse. Newly arrived populations from Syria since 2024 are among the most affected, with around 50,000 people (52 percent) projected to face acute food insecurity.

At these levels, households are no longer able to consistently meet their basic food needs and are increasingly forced to reduce the quantity and quality of food consumed, skip meals, or resort to harmful coping strategies such as taking on debt or selling essential assets to survive.

As the analysis reflects conditions in the immediate aftermath of the current escalation, the full effects of the conflict escalation and wider regional war may not yet be fully reflected in currently available evidence, as such actual outcomes could deteriorate further should these pressures intensify or persist for longer than currently assumed.

Sustained and timely humanitarian and livelihoods assistance is critical to protect the most vulnerable, safeguard livelihoods and prevent a deeper food security crisis.

#                 #                   #

About the World Food Programme (WFP)

The United Nations World Food Programme is the world’s largest humanitarian organization, saving lives in emergencies and using food assistance to build a pathway to peace, stability and prosperity for people recovering from conflict, disasters and the impact of climate change.

Follow us on X, formerly Twitter, via @wfp_media

About the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations that leads international efforts to defeat hunger. FAO’s goal is to achieve food security for all and ensure people have regular access to enough high-quality food to lead active, healthy lives. With 195 members, 194 countries and the European Union, FAO works in over 130 countries worldwide.

Follow us on @FAOLebanonFAOinLebanon

Media contacts:

Rasha Abou Dargham, WFP Lebanon, +961-76-866-779, rasha.aboudargham@wfp.org

Elite Sfeir, FAO Lebanon, +961 (81) 6 84 34 7, elite.sfeir@fao.org

Abeer Etefa, WFP Cairo, Mob + 20 106 6634 352

Julian Miglierini, WFP/ Rome, Mob. +39 348 2316793

Nicola Kelly, WFP/London, Mob +44 (0)796 8008 474

Martin Rentsch, WFP/Berlin, Mob +49 160 99 26 17 30
Shaza Moghraby, WFP/New York, Mob. + 1 929 289 9867

Rene McGuffin, WFP/ Washington Mob. +1 771 245 4268

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Rush for Critical Minerals Echoes Oil Extraction Injustice as Harms Fall on World’s Most Vulnerable, UN Scientists Warn

Note: Race to build EVs, renewable energy systems and AI infrastructure, with benefits flowing mainly to wealthy nations, is driving severe, largely hidden costs borne disproportionately by the poor in Africa and South America, UN University investigation reveals. unu.edu/inweh  – Following is a News Release:

Richmond Hill, Ontario, Canada, 29 April 2026 – Mining critical minerals such as lithium and cobalt fuels the ‘green’ energy and digital transitions essential to meeting climate goals. But building the technologies that enable a sustainable future is generating severe, hidden environmental and health crises that the world is failing to track or address, warns a new report by the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), known as the UN’s Think Tank on Water.

The investigation finds that systemic global failures are allowing the costs of critical minerals extraction to fall disproportionately on some of the world’s most vulnerable communities, while the benefits accumulate elsewhere in the form of electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy systems, and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Read the full report:  https://bit.ly/4sNLgos 

The report does not question the need for clean energy systems or the digital infrastructure underpinning them. Instead, it asks who is paying for and benefitting from humanity’s progress in those areas, and finds a deeply unjust answer.

“Technological disruptions are needed and useful. But we should be aware of and proactively address their unintended consequences if we want the whole world to equally benefit from them,” says UNU-INWEH Director Kaveh Madani, who led the investigation team. “You cannot call a transition green, sustainable, and just if it simply moves the environmental harm from the rich to the poor, and from one group of people or region to another.”

The report, Critical Minerals, Water Insecurity and Injustice, underlines the intense water requirements of critical minerals extraction and that communities living closest to mining operations are paying a steep price in contaminated water, water scarcity, lost livelihoods, and serious health consequences.

In 2024, the report says, global lithium output of roughly 240,000 tonnes consumed an estimated 456 billion litres of water, equivalent to the annual domestic water needs of 62 million people in sub-Saharan Africa, roughly the population of Tanzania.

In Chile’s Salar de Atacama, lithium mining alone accounts for up to 65% of regional water usage, intensifying competition with agriculture and domestic needs and driving dramatic groundwater depletion. Between 1990 and 2015, water tables in areas with brine wells dropped by up to nine metres.

And lithium mining in Bolivia’s Uyuni region is making it increasingly difficult for communities to grow quinoa, their economic and nutritional staple.

Globally, about one-sixth (16%) of critical minerals reserves are located in high water-stress regions, while 54% of energy transition minerals sit on or near indigenous territories.

The environmental damage extends well beyond water consumption. For every tonne of hard-to-extract rare earth minerals produced, approximately 2,000 tonnes of toxic waste are generated. In 2024, global rare earth production generated an estimated 707 million metric tonnes of toxic waste, enough to fill about 59 million garbage trucks – a number of trucks that could form a queue circling the equator 13 times.

The 21st century’s oil – The Paris Agreement gives urgency to the extraction of critical minerals to reduce the carbon-intensity of human activities. Yet this creates a new ‘paradox’: meeting global climate targets would require a ninefold increase in lithium demand and a doubling of cobalt and nickel demand by 2040.

“Without effective control mechanisms, the very targets designed to protect the planet can accelerate water, and health, and injustice crises in the communities least responsible for causing climate change,” says Prof. Madani, recently named the Stockholm Water Prize Laureate for 2026.

“The world is rushing to build a cleaner energy future, and we support that urgency. But our investigation proves that the mining operations powering that transition are contaminating drinking water, destroying agricultural livelihoods, and exposing children to toxic heavy metals in some of the world’s most vulnerable communities.”

Demand for graphite and other minerals essential to the energy and digital transition is projected to rise four or five times by 2050.

Referring to critical minerals as the ‘oil of the 21st century,’ the report draws a sobering parallel to the fossil fuel era, noting that the benefits of past resource extraction rarely reached the communities that bore its costs. Without deliberate policy intervention, it warns, the energy transition risks repeating that pattern, creating new “sacrifice zones” in mineral-rich but economically-marginalised regions.

Health burden falls hardest on women and children – Mining-related water contamination is creating serious public health emergencies. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), for example, a major cobalt producer, 72% of people living near mining sites reported skin diseases, and 56% of women and girls reported gynecological problems.

Birth defect rates in maternal wards near DRC mining areas are markedly elevated compared to those farther away, including neural tube defects (which can lead to serious infant brain and spine defects) at a rate of 10.9 per 10,000 births and lower limb defects at 8.8 per 10,000 births.

The psychosocial toll is also documented. Residents of mining communities in Calama, Chile and Mibanze, DRC describe living in constant fear, anxiety, and a sense of being ‘sacrificed’ so that wealthier regions can advance. Studies link water insecurity and chronic pollution exposure to elevated rates of anxiety, depression, and in extreme cases, suicide.

And approximately 30% of mining sites in the DRC employ children, who typically lack basic health and safety protections.

In the DRC, more than 80% of mineral output is controlled by foreign industrial mines, limiting local economic gains. Despite the country’s vast mineral wealth, over 70% of the DRC’s population lives on less than $2.15 per day.

“The green energy transition is among the most important undertakings of our time. But the evidence we’ve gathered shows that the communities doing the actual digging, breathing the dust, and losing access to clean water are largely excluded from its benefits,” says UNU-INWEH scientist Dr. Abraham Nunbogu, the report’s lead author.

“If we don’t correct the governance failures driving this, we will have built the clean energy economy of the future on the same extractive injustices as the fossil fuel economy of the past.”

Urgent policy action required – The report calls for a fundamental shift in how the global community governs critical mineral supply chains.

Key recommendations include mandatory international due diligence standards to replace voluntary compliance, legally binding mechanisms for ethical sourcing and environmental justice, strict pollution and wastewater controls including zero-discharge systems, and independent monitoring of water use and heavy metal contamination.

The report also calls for investment in circular economy solutions, including advanced recycling of batteries, electronics, and renewable energy components, to reduce pressure on primary extraction.

The report notes that the issues bear directly on progress towards UN Sustainable Development Goals 6 (clean water and sanitation), 3 (good health and well-being), 1 (no poverty), 7 (affordable and clean energy), and 10 (reduced inequalities).

“This rigorous, evidence-based investigation by UNU scientists addresses a problem the world urgently needs to confront,” says Prof. Tshilidzi Marwala, UN Under-Secretary-General and Rector of the United Nations University.

“A transition that deepens poverty, undermines access to clean water, and concentrates health burdens on the world’s most marginalized communities is not a transition toward the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. It is a step away from them. We cannot give up on the digital transition but we need to do it right.”

Drawing on empirical analyses, scientific studies, and field evidence from the Lithium Triangle, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and other high-risk extraction regions, the report presents what the authors describe as one of the most overlooked injustices of the global sustainability transition.

Importantly, the report makes clear this is not exclusively a problem of distant or developing regions. The Thacker Pass lithium mine in Nevada, the largest known lithium deposit in the United States, would require up to 3.5 billion litres of water annually, largely by diverting water rights from farming communities in the Quinn River Valley.

In Canada, the 2014 Mount Polley copper/gold mine disaster in British Columbia released roughly 25 million cubic metres of toxic waste into rivers and lakes, contaminating drinking water sources and devastating Indigenous communities. The report calls it one of Canada’s worst mining-related environmental failures.

“Water insecurity is not a side effect of critical mineral mining, it is a systemic outcome of how the global supply chain is currently designed and governed,” says Prof. Madani. “Without binding international standards, mandatory disclosure, and genuine community co-governance, the demand surge projected for the coming decades will make the current situation dramatically worse.”

The report argues that without binding global rules, the current system will continue to externalize environmental and health costs.

Key recommendations include: Mandatory international due diligence standards to replace voluntary compliance, with legally binding mechanisms for ethical sourcing and environmental justice

Strict pollution and wastewater controls, including zero-discharge systems, and independent monitoring of water use and heavy metal contamination

Investment in circular economy solutions — including advanced recycling of batteries, electronics, and renewable energy components — to reduce pressure on primary extraction

Legally mandated benefit-sharing agreements that direct a fair share of mining revenues to affected communities for health, water, and education services

Legal enshrinement of Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC) for Indigenous communities whose lands are affected by extraction

Robust public health systems and mandatory Health Impact Assessments in mining regions, with companies required to contribute financially

Investment in low-water extraction technologies such as direct lithium extraction (DLE) to reduce freshwater consumption

“The data collected for this report makes a stark case, documenting severe health and environmental outcomes in communities that will probably never own an electric vehicle or benefit from the technologies their land is being destroyed to build, in the foreseeable future” says Dr. Nunbogu.

“These hidden costs of the energy transition remain largely invisible to regulators and the public because reliable, publicly accessible data on water usage and pollution at specific mining sites remains scarce. Without open and verifiable data, we cannot hold supply chains accountable, and we cannot ensure that the transition is equitable. That is not a technical failure, it is a governance failure.”

By the numbers – Demand for critical minerals tripled between 2010 and 2023

Lithium demand rose 30% in 2022 alone; cobalt and nickel demand grew 70% and 40% respectively from 2017 to 2022

Total global trade value of critical minerals exceeded USD 320 billion by 2022

Demand projected to more than double by 2030 and quadruple by 2050

Graphite, lithium, and cobalt demand could rise by nearly 500% by 2050 relative to 2020 levels

Meeting Paris Agreement targets would require a ninefold increase in lithium demand and a doubling of cobalt and nickel demand by 2040

Water – 1.9 million litres of water required to produce one tonne of lithium

An average lithium mine producing 11,000 tonnes annually uses roughly 20 billion litres of water — enough to cover the annual domestic water needs of 2.8 million people in sub-Saharan Africa

2024 global lithium output (excluding US): ~240,000 tonnes, requiring an estimated 456 billion litres of water — equivalent to the annual domestic water needs of 62 million people in sub-Saharan Africa

Lithium mining accounts for up to 65% of regional water usage in Chile’s Salar de Atacama

Thacker Pass mine (Nevada, USA) would require up to 3.5 billion litres of water annually

Water table in Atacama brine-well areas dropped by up to 9 metres from 1990 to 2015

16% of critical mineral mining sites are in areas already classified as water-stressed

54% of energy transition mineral projects are on or near indigenous peoples’ lands

Toxic waste – Each tonne of rare earth elements produced generates ~2,000 tonnes of toxic waste overall, plus 1 tonne of radioactive residue and 75 cubic metres of wastewater

2024 global rare earth production generated an estimated 707 million metric tonnes of toxic waste — equivalent to ~59 million loaded garbage trucks, or the annual municipal waste of approximately 1.4 billion people

~70% of that waste (490 million metric tonnes) was generated in China

Concentration of reserves and production – Africa holds 30% of the world’s critical mineral reserves

DRC, Madagascar, and Morocco hold over 50% of global cobalt deposits; DRC’s global cobalt production share has remained above 60% from 2020 to 2024

South Africa holds ~90% of global platinum reserves and accounts for ~70% of global production

The Lithium Triangle (Argentina, Bolivia, Chile) holds over 50% of world lithium reserves

Indonesia holds 42% of global nickel reserves and in 2023 accounted for 51% of global nickel production

Over 80% of DRC mineral output is controlled by foreign industrial mines; Indonesian companies control less than 10% of national nickel production

Health impacts in DRC – 72% of respondents near DRC mining sites reported skin diseases56% of women and girls reported gynecological issues; 14% reported similar issues among teenage girls.

Neural tube defects near DRC mining areas: 10.9 per 10,000 births

Lower limb defects: 8.8 per 10,000 births; cleft lip/palate: 7.2 per 10,000; abdominal wall defects: 6.4 per 10,000

Cobalt concentrations found to be higher in umbilical cord blood than in maternal blood at delivery

~30% of DRC mining sites employ children, often without basic health or safety protections; children as young as seven work without protective equipment

Poverty and inequality – 73.5% of DRC’s population lives on less than $2.15 per day

64% of DRC’s population lacked basic drinking water access in 2024 — despite the country holding more than 50% of Africa’s freshwater reserves

Namibia, Zambia, and DRC hold over 30% of world critical mineral deposits, but most profits flow to multinational corporations and mining companies in the Global North

Indonesia: domestic companies control less than 10% of national nickel production

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Report Information – Nunbogu, A., Farsi, A., Matin, M., Madani, K. (2026). Critical Minerals, Water Insecurity and Injustice. United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment, and Health (UNU-INWEH), Richmond Hill, Ontario, Canada, doi: 10.53328/INR25ABN002

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About UNU-INWEH – Marking its 30th anniversary of operation in 2026, the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH) is one of 13 institutions that comprise the United Nations University (UNU), the academic arm of the UN.

Known as ‘The UN’s Think Tank on Water’, UNU-INWEH addresses critical water, environmental, and health challenges around the world. Through research, training, capacity development, and knowledge dissemination, the institute contributes to solving pressing global sustainability and human security issues of concern to the UN and its Member States. Headquartered in Richmond Hill, Ontario, UNU-INWEH has been hosted and supported by the Government of Canada since 1996. With a global mandate and extensive partnerships across UN entities, international organizations, and governments, UNU-INWEH operates through its UNU Hubs in Calgary, Hamburg, New York, Lund, and Pretoria, and an international network of affiliates.

unu.edu/inweh 

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73.5% of DRC’s population lives on less than $2.15 per day

64% of DRC’s population lacked basic drinking water access in 2024, despite the country holding more than 50% of Africa’s freshwater reserves

Namibia, Zambia, and DRC hold over 30% of world critical mineral deposits, but most profits flow to multinational corporations and mining companies in the Global North

Read the full report:  https://bit.ly/4sNLgos 

Images / figures used in the report: https://bit.ly/4u4ZT7V 

UNU-INWEH Director Kaveh Madani and co-authors are available for interviews

Contacts: 

Terry Collinsterrycollins1@gmail.com, +1-416-878-8712erry Collins & Associates | 295 Wright Ave. In the news: https://bit.ly/3WJo8cQ | Toronto, ON M6R1L8 CA

Alexander Tajmur, atajmur@unu.edu, +1 (942) 380 9907

William Smythwilliam.smyth@unu.edu, +1-647-919-3318 

United Nations correspondent journalists – United Nations correspondent journalists – United Nations journalism articles – United Nations journalism articles – United Nations News – UNCA Awards 

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